Gambler’s Corner-UFC 98 Betting Lines and Predictions

As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, Diamond Sportsbook recently signed on as a site sponsor, and they suggested that I do a monthly article geared towards the readers of the site that enjoy betting on fights. I jumped at the idea, because it seemed like a fun article to write, and maybe my predictions will spark some discussion on the upcoming UFC events as well.

Basically, I’m going to give some analysis on the fight, then place an imaginary bet on some of the fights. We’ll say I’m going to bet $500 total on the event as a whole, and we’ll see how I make out in the end. Betting lines provided by Diamond Sportsbook www.2betdsi.com

Let’s get right into the matchups:

Rashad Evans (+190) vs. Lyoto Machida (-240)

Before I get into my analysis, I want to explain what +190 and -240 means. That’s the betting line for the fight. When it says +190, that means you win $190 for every $100 you bet. When it says -240, that means you have to bet $240 to win $100. You can bet any amount you want, but that’s the ratio of the payout currently. So if you want to bet $50 on Rashad Evans, you’ll win $95 (as well as getting your original $50 back). To be honest, I’m really not sure why this line is as wide as it is. I know Machida is very good. His 14-0 record certainly proves that. He’s a black belt in BJJ, and an incredibly technical striker. Rashad, on the other hand, IS AN UNDEFEATED WORLD CHAMPION.

It’s not often that a current champion (or any undefeated fighter for that matter) comes in as an underdog of that size. Rashad is a freakish athlete, he has great wrestling and he hits like a friggin truck. He KO’d Lambert from mount, KO’d Salmon with a headkick, KO’d Chuck Liddell with one punch, and KO’d Forrest Griffin from guard. The point I’m trying to make is that he’s shown that he can knock guys out standing up with either his hands or feet, and he hits hard enough from the top to take guys out. Rashad touches guys, and he doesn’t hurt them…he stops them. I may be in the minority, but I don’t think Machida can avoid Rashad for 5 rounds. I see Rashad catching him and stopping him. At this line, I’m tempted to bet a couple hundred on Rashad, but for the purpose of this article, I’ll start with $50 on Evans to win $95.

Matt Serra (+200) vs. Matt Hughes (-250)

A couple years ago, Matt Hughes was a god. He had 6 straight wins in the UFC before losing to BJ Penn, then went on to win 6 more in a row before losing to GSP. While Hughes hasn’t looked great in many years, I don’t think he’s washed up yet. He looked boring against Lytle, but Hughes tends to stop people. He only has 3 decision wins in his UFC career. As far as Serra goes, he almost always wins by decision. He has 6 UFC wins total, with 1 submission over Kelly Dullanty back in 2002, as well as his fluky win over GSP. I hate to call any win fluky, but that’s the only time in 14 fights that Serra has stopped someone with punches. I really don’t see how Serra wins this fight. I like the guy and would love to see him win, but since 2000, Hughes has fought 25 times and only been submitted by GSP and BJ Penn. Hughes is tough to submit, and Serra almost always wins by decision. I don’t see Serra submitting Hughes, and I don’t see him winning a decision. Hughes is still a dominant wrestler, and much bigger than Serra. I’ll bet $150 to win $50 on Matt Hughes.

Drew McFedries (+140) vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam (-170)

I really don’t know enough about Xavier to get anywhere near this one. However, McFedries hits as hard as anyone in the world at his weight. He struggles with good submission guys and Xavier looks to be really well rounded, with several KO wins, and several submission wins.

Frank Edgar (+240) vs. Sean Sherk (-300)

The fact that I keep pointing back to in this one is how much Frank struggled with Maynard. Frank is incredibly tough, but he always wins by decision, and he always uses his wrestling to do so. When he ran into a better wrestler in Gray Maynard, he lost a lopsided decision. I think Sherk presents a similar match up, only Sherk has better boxing and better submissions than Maynard to add to his incredible wrestling. Sherk also always wins by decision, but he showed that he can win standing up when he beat Tyson Griffin in a stand up battle. I think Sherk wins no matter where it goes. Barring a crazy “anything can happen in MMA” moment, Sherk wins this one 30-27. I think this is the biggest lock on the card, and I’ll bet $300 to win $100 on Sherk.

Chael Sonnen (+125) vs. Dan Miller (-155)

Both guys are great wrestlers, both can strike but Dan has a significant advantage in the submission game. This is still a very tough fight to call, thus the close betting line. I can’t predict this one.

Chris Wilson (+250) vs. Brock Larson (-310)

Larson has too much wrestling for Wilson. He’s 25-2 with his losses coming to Carlos Condit and Jon Fitch. While Wilson is very good, I don’t think he’s likely to catch Larson. He has little shot at winning a decision because Larson will be the aggressor, and he has the better wrestling. Unless he catches Larson coming in, he’s likely to lose a decision. I’m not confident enough to bet it, though.

Krzysztof Soszynski (+130) vs. Andrei Gusmao (-160)

Gusmao is really good. He was confused by Jon Jones in his UFC debut, but he’s 5-0 other than that, and beat Mike Ciesnolevicz twice. Gusmao is a slick BJJ guy with strong stand up. I see him taking KS out in this fight, but I’m not confident enough to bet it. They have similar styles and I simply think Gusmao is better everywhere, but it’s close enough that I could see either guy getting caught.

Kyle Bradley (+275) vs. Phillipe Nover (-345)

I think this one is a ton closer than the line would lead you to believe. They were all over Nover’s junk when he appeared on TUF, and Dana even called him “The next GSP” and Nover then went on to get the hell beat out of him by Efrain Escudero in the finale. I guess I haven’t see anything from Nover that would make me think he should a THAT big of a favorite over Kyle Bradley. His two UFC fights were losses to Lauzon and Lytle…either guy would also beat Nover. I’m not saying Bradley wins, just that we haven’t seen enough of either guy to really say…and with a line this wide, I’m tempted to bet a small amount on Bradley.

I don’t know enough about the rest of the card to accurately preview it, but Barry, Yoshida and Roop are my picks to win.

Check out the rest of the line at www.2betdsi.com